Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 55%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Wednesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 223 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 223 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM EST · 18.4 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 01:37 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday at 34%
What changed: 46% → 34% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 224 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 34% over 224 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 64%
What changed: 34% → 64% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 224 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 224 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 53%
What changed: 64% → 53% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 224 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 224 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 17:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 55%
What changed: 53% → 55% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 224 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 224 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 1:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Wed Nov 4, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.