Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 30%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Wednesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 178 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 178 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 30%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 30%; calm-weather level 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 178 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 30% over 178 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?