Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 54%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 8
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Wednesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 189 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 189 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM EST · 21.4 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 01:37 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday at 39%
What changed: 50% → 39% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 39% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 66%
What changed: 39% → 66% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 54%
What changed: 66% → 54% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 17:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 57%
What changed: 54% → 57% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 55%
What changed: 57% → 55% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 58%
What changed: 55% → 58% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 54%
What changed: 58% → 54% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 194 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 194 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 4:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Wed Nov 4, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.