tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ATL departures

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 48%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 10:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 04:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday at 59%

    What changed: 44% → 59% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 48%

    What changed: 59% → 48% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Wed Nov 4, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.