tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay BNA departures

Nashville departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Nashville departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 29 departures that took off between 10:06 AM and 11:06 AM CDT, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window10:06 AM–11:06 AM CDT
    Sample29 flights, 16 late (55%)
    Comparison16% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour
    Median delay16.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 16:06 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    Nashville departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 55% → 86%

    Of 21 departures that took off between 8:59 PM and 9:59 PM CDT, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:59 PM–9:59 PM CDT
    Sample21 flights, 18 late (86%)
    Comparison47% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour
    Median delay42.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 02:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 4:48 AM CDT: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.