tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 7 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.