tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 104 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 2:00 PM EST · 20.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 54%

    What changed: 41% → 54% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 55%

    What changed: 54% → 55% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.