tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 82 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data <1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHL departures

Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 51%

    What changed: 40% → 51% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 56%

    What changed: 51% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.