tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 79 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 9:00 PM EST · 20.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 58%

    What changed: 50% → 58% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 53%

    What changed: 58% → 53% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 67%

    What changed: 53% → 67% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%

    What changed: 67% → 63% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 133 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 133 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.