Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 36%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:55 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Boston departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 36%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 36%; calm-weather level 29%
Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 36% over 116 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 5:00 PM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 22:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?