tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BOS departures

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 86%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 72% delay risk for Boston departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 01:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 86%

    What changed: 72% → 86% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)86% over 113 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.