Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 21:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 61%
What changed: 47% → 61% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 54%
What changed: 61% → 54% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 7:00 AM EST · 6.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 54% → 59% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 86 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 72%
What changed: 59% → 72% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 86 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 72% over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%
What changed: 72% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 7, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.