Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Boston departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 51%
What changed: 56% → 51% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 75 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM EST · 20.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 02:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 58%
What changed: 51% → 58% since the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 75 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 7:00 AM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 72%
What changed: 58% → 72% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 72% over 75 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 9:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%
What changed: 72% → 62% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 76 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%
What changed: 62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 77 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.