tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 1:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 07:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 61%

    What changed: 44% → 61% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 50%

    What changed: 61% → 50% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 10:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

    What changed: 50% → 60% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 9:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%

    What changed: 60% → 48% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 81 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 7, 12:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.