tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 52%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Boston departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 PM EST · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 60%

    What changed: 46% → 60% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 52%

    What changed: 60% → 52% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 7, 9:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.