tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Boston departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 31 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 10:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 81%

    What changed: 69% → 81% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)81% over 32 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

    What changed: 81% → 66% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.