tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 80 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay BOS departures

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 79%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 65% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 5:00 PM EST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 79%

    What changed: 65% → 79% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 116 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.