tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:56 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Boston departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 137 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 137 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 137 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)29% over 137 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?