tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 77 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model raises Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 69%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 2:00 PM EST · 20.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 60%

    What changed: 48% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 104 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 45%

    What changed: 60% → 45% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 57%

    What changed: 45% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 104 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 48%

    What changed: 57% → 48% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 8:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 56%

    What changed: 48% → 56% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 9:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 69%

    What changed: 56% → 69% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.