Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 01:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 56%
What changed: 44% → 56% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 56%
What changed: 56% → 56% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%
What changed: 56% → 61% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.