tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 54 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 57%

    What changed: 47% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 54 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.