tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 55 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 72%

    What changed: 58% → 72% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 56 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%

    What changed: 72% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.