tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 83%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 65% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 76%

    What changed: 65% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 79%

    What changed: 76% → 79% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 83%

    What changed: 79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)83% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.