tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 77 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay MCO departures

Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MCOFlights at MCO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for MCO departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 146 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 146 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 65%

    What changed: 55% → 65% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 147 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises MCO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

    What changed: 65% → 71% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 147 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.