tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 83 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MCO departures

Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MCOFlights at MCO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 60% delay risk for MCO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises MCO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 69%

    What changed: 60% → 69% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers MCO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%

    What changed: 69% → 68% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.