tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 58%

    What changed: 48% → 58% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 3:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Oct 18, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.