tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 59%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 59%

    What changed: 51% → 59% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 5:00 PM CDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.