tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 74 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 6:57 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 93 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.2 over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 3

    What changed: about 5 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 93 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.7 over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?