Model lowers Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 29%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Newark departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 1:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 29%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 29%; calm-weather level 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 29% over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?