tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 80 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:59 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 3:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 20%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 10:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?