Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 40%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:57 PM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 18 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 40%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 40%; calm-weather level 33%
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 19 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 3:00 PM CST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?