tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 2:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.