tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 68 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 6:00 AM CST · 10.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 13:29 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 58%

    What changed: 44% → 58% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 9, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.