tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Austin departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Austin departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 13 departures that took off between 11:33 AM and 12:33 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window11:33 AM–12:33 PM CST
    Sample13 flights, 6 late (46%)
    Comparison23% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour
    Median delay14.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 18:33 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    Austin departure delays worsen: 80% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 46% → 80%

    Of 15 departures that took off between 2:17 PM and 3:17 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window2:17 PM–3:17 PM CST
    Sample15 flights, 12 late (80%)
    Comparison30% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour
    Median delay31.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 21:17 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Observed

    Austin departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal

    What changed: late share 80% → 67%

    Of 18 departures that took off between 5:05 PM and 6:05 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window5:05 PM–6:05 PM CST
    Sample18 flights, 12 late (67%)
    Comparison38% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour
    Median delay30.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 00:05 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Observed

    Austin departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 67% → 85%

    Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:21 PM–9:21 PM CST
    Sample13 flights, 11 late (85%)
    Comparison42% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour
    Median delay34.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 03:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 10, 4:49 AM CST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.