Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:27 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 45 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 10, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-10 08:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 61%
What changed: 52% → 61% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 45 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 10, 2:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-10 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 35%
What changed: 61% → 35% since the 2:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 45 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 10, 3:00 AM CST · 7.9 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-10 10:06 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 35% → 28%; calm-weather level 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 45 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-10 11:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?