tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay LGA departures

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 74%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View LGAFlights at LGA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 61% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-11 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 54%

    What changed: 61% → 54% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 9:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 14:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 58%

    What changed: 54% → 58% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 74%

    What changed: 58% → 74% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)74% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.