tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 88 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation LGA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 10:56 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.8 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST · 21.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 4 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.0 over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 AM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 13:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3

    What changed: about 4 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.0 over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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