tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LGA departures

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:57 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 12:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LaGuardia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday at 32%

    What changed: 43% → 32% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia noon–3 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)32% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 32% → 31%; calm-weather level 16%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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