tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LGA departures

Updated model puts LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 76%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 66% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 9:00 PM EST · 23.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 02:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 76%

    What changed: 66% → 76% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.