tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LGA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 12 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.5 over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    What changed: about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.8 over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.