tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 82 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.8 over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 14.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 99 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.1 over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    What changed: about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.6 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.