tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 60 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Developing Delay JFK departures

Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 54%

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 54%

    What changed: 57% → 54% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 20.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?