Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.3 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 8 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.2 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
What changed: about 8 → 22 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~21.6 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
What changed: about 22 → 17 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.4 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
What changed: about 17 → 11 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.3 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 AM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday
What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.1 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.