tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 60 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant New Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 67 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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