Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.7 over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 9 → 16 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.2 over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 16 → 27 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.0 over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 34 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 27 → 34 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 34 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~33.7 over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 34 → 16 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.8 over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 16 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.2 over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 06:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.8 over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?