Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 59%
What changed: 50% → 59% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 49%
What changed: 59% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%
What changed: 49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 38% over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?