Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 13 cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.0 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 33 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
What changed: about 13 → 33 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~33.2 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 27 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
What changed: about 33 → 27 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.4 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
What changed: about 27 → 15 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.7 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
What changed: about 15 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.7 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 06:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday
What changed: about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.1 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?