Model raises expected cancellations to about 74 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.7 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 6 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.7 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 6 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 12 → 6 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.3 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.8 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.4 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 7 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.7 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 74 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 11 → 74 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 74 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (74%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~74.5 over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.