tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.8 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 4 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.3 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 4 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.3 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 5 → 7 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.2 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.5 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.4 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 7 → 37 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (55%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~37.4 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  8. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 41 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 37 → 41 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 41 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (61%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~41.3 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  9. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 41 → 46 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 66 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (70%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~46.4 over 66 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.