tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 11 cancellations among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 21 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (52%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.0 over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 18 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.8 over 18 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.